The Watermelon Effect: Why So Many Transformations Look Green but Bleed Red.

Press Release

Sydney, Australia - 21st October 2025 — They look healthy on the outside, but are failing on the inside. Transformation programs that report "green" across all dashboards yet hide deep-seated issues beneath the surface are being called out as "Watermelon Programs" by global transformation expert Sarah Conibear, CEO and Founder of Flux.

With over 25 years leading, reviewing and rescuing large-scale transformation programs across the globe, Conibear warns that what looks like success on paper often conceals serious cultural and capability gaps that derail delivery and waste millions of dollars in shareholder or taxpayer value.

"Transformation by definition is ambiguous and full of moving parts. When everything is reported as green, you're either looking at fantasy or fear," Conibear said. "The healthiest programs I've seen are transparent, well-sequenced, and led by people who value truth over theatre."

What Is a Watermelon Program?

Like the fruit it's named after, a Watermelon Program is green on the outside but red at the core. It looks successful — strong progress, reports polished, confidence high — but inside, risk, confusion and misalignment are quietly eroding results.

Conibear explains that most teams don't deliberately hide the truth; instead, they are caught in a system that rewards looking good over being honest.

"Behind every Watermelon Program sits a culture that fears red," she said. "Leaders reward green dashboards, vendors are paid for green milestones, and nobody wants to be the one waving the red flag."

The Cultural Problem: The Cult of Green

Flux's recovery work with global organisations shows that 'green equals good' has become deeply ingrained in corporate culture. When projects drift off track, teams often spend more time talking about "getting back to green" than fixing the underlying issue of slow decisions, hidden problems and, ultimately, failure.

"The most effective leaders reward transparency, not compliance," said Conibear. "They create a culture of truth-telling where amber and red are seen as opportunities to problem-solve, not punish."

When Culture Meets Capability Gaps

According to Conibear, culture isn't the only culprit. Capability gaps in planning and thinking compound the problem.

Many organisations, she notes, confuse activity for progress, jumping from ambition to action without proper alignment or critical thinking - which she refers to as the 'thinking-gap' that kills transformation.

"Agile doesn't replace planning — it just changes how you do it," Conibear said. "Too often, I see teams use 'we're agile' as an excuse not to plan at all. The result is programs that look busy but move nowhere."

Warning Signs of a Watermelon

Flux identifies several tell-tale signs leaders should watch for:

1. Lack of visibility — Status is reported in one colour without supporting detail.
   
    
2. Slow decision flow — Major decisions wait for monthly committees instead of real-time action - essentially managing history. 
   
    
3. No one asks for help — Silence usually signals fear, not confidence.
   
    
4. 'Red' is taboo — If red is seen as a failure, it will always arrive too late.
   
    
5. The plan doesn't hang together — Poor sequencing and dependency management hide risk.
   
    

How to Slice it Open 

Conibear says Boards and Executives can reduce the Watermelon Effect by shifting from reporting to real problem-solving:

• Encourage teams to ask for help early — escalation is maturity, not failure.
  
   
• Build decision flow, not governance bureaucracy.
  
   
• Use Execution strategy and top-down planning before building detail.
  
   
• Keep a Plan B ready — flexibility is a strength.
  
   
• Drive transparency through culture — celebrate problems solved not hidden
  
   

"Every transformation hits red moments," says Conibear. "That's normal — it's where real learning happens. The goal isn't to stay green all the time, it's to tell the truth early and often enough to stay in control."

Her message to Boards and executives is clear: Watermelons cost business and taxpayers millions of dollars in wasted effort and frustration every year. If your dashboards are always green it's time to start asking questions fast. 

-ENDS-

About Sarah Conibear

Sarah Conibear is the CEO and Founder of Flux, a consulting firm that helps organisations unlock delivery performance through truth, transparency and capability. A former Managing Director at Accenture and Senior Partner at Deloitte, Sarah has led and advised on over 100 major transformation programs globally. She is an expert advisor to the University of Sydney's School of Program Leadership and is frequently featured in the Australian Financial Review, Yahoo Finance, and Canberra News.

Media Contact: Candice Gersun candice@reconnectpr.com.au 0481 369 484