Australia's Apartment Shortfall Set to Reach 21,000 Dwellings a Year, New National Data Reveals

Australia's apartment market needs to build significantly more homes than it currently is, according to Charter Keck Cramer's State of the Market H1 2026 report, released today. The independent property advisory and research firm's six-monthly national forecast finds an annual apartment shortfall of between 13,000 and 21,000 dwellings across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra - with the Gold Coast the only capital city market forecast to build enough to meet demand.

Build to Sell: a pipeline at risk

The report highlights that the Federal Budget's proposed changes to self-managed super fund (SMSF) lending have put a significant amount of future apartment supply at risk of not being delivered. Presales to investor buyers, including SMSFs, are typically what allow developers to demonstrate project viability and secure financing in the first place - without them, projects stall or don't proceed at all. Charter Keck Cramer is calling for a carve-out that would allow SMSFs to continue purchasing into new apartment projects under current settings.

Build to Rent: a structural shift underway

At the same time, institutional capital is stepping into the gap left by a weaker Build to Sell market. The report forecasts Build to Rent will deliver more than half of all new apartments completed in Melbourne by FY2027 - a marked shift in who is building new housing, who is holding the stock, and how Australians will access apartment living in the years ahead.

"The data makes clear that closing Australia's housing gap isn't only a question of planning approvals - it's about the settings that determine whether approved projects can actually get built," said Richard Temlett, National Executive Director of Research at Charter Keck Cramer.

"Investor presales have long been the mechanism that gets new supply out of the ground, and policy needs to account for that role rather than treat all buyers the same. Build to Rent is a genuine part of the solution and institutional confidence in the sector remains strong, but it can't close the gap on its own. Government, lenders and industry all have a part to play if we're serious about turning this shortfall around," he said.

Charter Keck Cramer's State of the Market H1 2026 report covers apartment supply and demand across all seven Australian capital cities. The full report is available at charterkc.com.au, or by contacting the media team below.